Case Study 3
Value from supply – Sweden

Value from Supply

The focus of CS3 is on forest management strategies and policy for cost competitiveness and resilient sustainable wood supply security. Outputs will include a value-chain Decision Support System (DSS), as well as guidelines for more competitive and resilient sustainable wood supply in Sweden. Case study location: Västerbotten/Norrbotten region (Northern Sweden).

To accomplish this the CS3 team will:

examine future development of regional value chains, focusing on the effects of future silvicultural practices on raw material supply with resulting changes in industrial supply security and cost competitiveness;
aim to project the effects of long-term trends for forest policy and industrial demand on raw material supply security and cost competitiveness;
compare reference scenarios (current base case) to future supply and demand scenarios for regional scenarios;
perform Life Cycle Costing (LCC) scenario analysis on the costs of forest-based products with non-wood alternatives, incorporating carbon pricing, in the context of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (imposing carbon costs on imports to more accurately reflect their carbon content).

Contact

CS3 Leader: CrOpt (Sweden)

Contact: Mikael Frisk | frisk@creativeoptimization.se

Challenge

Management strategies, political decisions, future climate or other scenario dimensions can affect raw material availability (production volumes, log dimensions, and quality characteristics) on a regional level and impact future industrial composition. Also, with the expected growth in biomass demand in future, higher-resolution information will be required (e.g. in terms of density, knots, calorific value, etc.).

Opportunity

The opportunity is to offer future projections of how different scenarios of both biomass supply and industry demand affect the forestry value chain on a regional level, with a focus on supply security, economics, and the environment. Industrial scenarios will focus on changes in demand for different assortments, and how industry can benefit from higher-resolution information on the biomass.